Tuesday, December 21, 2010

U.S. Census: One of a Kind

Michigan is the only state in the union that lost population in the last decade, according to 2010 U.S. Census data.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight speculates on what it means for Michigan's congressional districts:

Michigan (−1 seat) As in Ohio, many Michigan districts have lost population. The districts with the largest population losses, the 13th and the 14th, are Democratic-leaning parts of Detroit, and Republicans are in control of redistricting, which would seem to give them an edge.

Michigan’s current boundaries were already pretty decent for Republicans — and some of their strongholds have lost population, too — so while they can work to improve the odds that the lost seat will be a Democratic one, they may not be able to guarantee it. For instance, they could try to force Democratic incumbents Dale Kildee and Gary Peters, now of the 5th and 9th districts, to compete against one another — but that might render the 11th or the 8th districts, now held by Republicans, more vulnerable.

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